Mapeley update

Fellow Income Monkey's that have been following the prospects of Mapeley are probably already aware of the fact that the recent talk over talks came to an end with the announcement on Friday morning. Unsurprisingly the market reacted by marking down the stock heavily from its closing price of £15.57 to £13.21.

Credit crunch
Both the Times and the FT reports that the collapse of the talks were down to the fact that Fortress Investment Group the majority shareholder with over 50% of the share capital were thwarted in their attempt by the conditions in the American money markets.

My reaction
Relief! The biggest risk to me as an income investor was that Mapeley was taken out cheaply as a result of an opportunist bid only successful because of the poor sentiment toward property companies. My reaction was to immediately go back into the market a buy shares. I had taken advantage of the bid to book some short term profits and unwind a significant CFD position. This enabled me to go back in and crank up my holding at a lower average price.

Focus on income generating fundamentals
The latest preliminary results for the year to the end of 2007 showed income investors just what they wanted to see. All the metrics relating to income were up:

Dividends up 11.9% to 188 pence per share (2006: 168 pence

- FFO up 23.4% to £56.4 million (2006: £45.7 million)

- EBITDA up 23.4% to £115.4 million (2006: £93.5 million)

- Revenue up 8.4% to £417.4 million (2006: £385.0 million)

This all means that dividends which were up 11.9% from 188 pence per share (2006: 168 pence). At the current share price this dividend equates to just over 14%.

The most important metric out of these figures is the FFO. This effectively measure the free cashflow and therefore the amount a company can pay in dividends. Mapeley figures show that FFO is up to £56.4 million or 192p a share. This enabled them to pay the 188p dividend out of existing income making the whole process very sustainable.

Paradoxically one of the reasons that the City has been marking down Mapeley is because its investment portfolio is heavily office and regionally based. These provincial properties are perceived rightly to be more of a risk of value reductions. However, as the Times commented that Mapeley is protected from a potential slump in demand for commercial property by the fact that a majority of their tenants are in the public sector (over 60% is let to the public sector tenants). These are just the low risk tenants who going into a economic slump are the ones you need because they are less likely to miss rents or be unable to pay.

Income Monkey Recommendation
I still think that Mapeley has a bright future. The big risk on the horizon is that Fortress are just stalling their time in making the bid in the hope that the market still responds to lack of confidence the share price by launching a secret bid at the right time. For more views and discussion about Mapeley go here